Key points:
- The US has decided to allow Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to be exported to China with a 25% fee, which could increase demand and competition for these chips.
- This move may lead to higher prices or longer lead times for enterprise buyers planning to upgrade their infrastructure in 2026.
- Enterprise buyers should prepare for potential supply-side uncertainty and consider diversifying their supply, engaging early with vendors, and locking in multi-year pricing to minimize risks.
According to sources, the US government has announced that it will allow Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to be exported to China with a 25% fee. This decision is expected to have a significant impact on the global demand for these chips, and could potentially lead to higher prices or longer lead times for enterprise buyers. Microsoft, which relies on Nvidia’s GPUs for its Azure cloud services, may also be affected by this decision.
US President Donald Trump announced the policy shift, stating that it will protect national security, create American jobs, and keep America’s lead in AI. However, he stopped short of allowing exports of Nvidia’s fastest chips, saying that Nvidia’s US customers are already moving forward with their plans. The Commerce Department is finalizing the details of the export policy, which will also apply to other American companies like AMD and Intel.
Analysts are divided on the impact of this decision on global supply. Some, like Charlie Dai from Forrester, believe that the renewed access to H200 chips will have only a modest impact on global supply, as China is prioritizing domestic AI chips. Others, like Manish Rawat from TechInsights, warn that even selective demand from China could tighten global allocation, leading to longer lead times and higher prices for enterprise buyers.
The Chinese ecosystem is catching up fast, with models optimized on domestic silicon and software, which may reduce demand for US AI server stacks. However, if Chinese buyers regain access to H200 units, global supply dynamics will tighten quickly, with hyperscalers placing aggressive orders and Nvidia prioritizing them over enterprise buyers.
For 2026 refresh cycles, analysts advise enterprise buyers to anticipate some supply-side uncertainty and consider diversifying their supply, engaging early with vendors, and locking in multi-year pricing. They should also prepare for potential lead time extensions and price increases, and consider alternative architectures for better cost-performance flexibility. Microsoft, as a major player in the cloud computing market, may need to adjust its Azure pricing and infrastructure plans accordingly.
As the situation develops, enterprise buyers should keep a close eye on the Nvidia H200 supply chain and Microsoft’s Azure services, and be prepared to adapt to any changes in the market. With the US-China trade relationship and global AI demand continuing to evolve, the impact of this decision will be closely watched by Microsoft, Nvidia, and other industry players.
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